India’s net export, among the four essential parts of the GDP, has remained in the adverse area for decades, confirming a significant drag on its development story. The gap between India’s export as well as import has been expanding larger and more prominent in the past decade. It crossed the $100 billion mark in 2008-09 and also has remained above that since clocking $184 billion in 2018-19. Greater the negative trade balance, higher the current account deficit (CAD) and higher the drag on forex reserve. This has been a root cause of long term anxiety. After a sudden surge in 2010-11 as well as 2011-12, India’s export growth has decreased to a single figure, both for the product as well as services, in US dollar terms. The share of services in exports has been expanding in recent years. From 32% of the total value of exports a few years ago, it added more than 38% in the last two fiscals.
Similar is the case when the quantum of exports is checked out. The RBI’s quantum index (the base year 1999-2000) shows the development numbers coming down from 15.2% in 2010-11 to 2.9% in 2017-18 – the year for which information is readily available. When looked from the international perspective, India’s export growth does not look as harmful. The comprehensive data offered by the UNCTAD shows development in India’s export of goods adheres to a basic fad, showing a close relationship to the global economy. In 2018 (fiscal year), India’s export development was 8.8% versus the international growth of 9.8% in US dollar terms – changing the placement from 2017 when India clocked a 13.3% development while the worldwide export growth was 10.6%. A comparative evaluation of development in the export of product for Asian leaders like China and also South Korea and brand-new export centers like Vietnam and Indonesia additionally show a similar decreasing trend. India had a hard time to raise its share of global export of the product to 2%, which it last acquired in 1948 – when it touched a high of 2.2% in US dollar terms. Its share has continued to be below 2% ever since and also floated between 1.5% and 1.7% between 2010 and 2018 (financial year). Engineering goods, gems, and jewelry, as well as a prefabricated garment (RMG) of textiles, are three of the top industries contributing most to India’s export in value and are of high relevance because of their work extensive nature, giving high employment.
RBI’s information offers a disturbing trend. Growth in the export of design goods, fell to 6.3%, from 17% in 2017-18. The very same for the treasures and also jewelry and RMG of fabrics, which constituted 12% and even 5% of commodity export in 2018-19 (in US dollar terms) respectively, have registered negative growth for the last two fiscals. US-China trade battle presents a substantial chance for India to improve its exports substantially to the United States and also elsewhere.