El Nino and the Indian monsoon

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El Niño is a phenomenon in which surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Sea see an unusual increase. Throughout the years, it has been found to have a strong bearing on monsoon rains in India. While warmer temperatures are recognized to suppress monsoon rainfall, the opposite phenomenon of La Niña has been discovered to be valuable in bringing high rainfall.

El Nino affects the circulation of moisture-bearing winds from the colder seas towards India, negatively influence the summer downpour, which makes up over 70% of yearly rainfall. Once El Nino sets in, it proceeds for around 12-15 months and also subsides in the next pre-monsoon period. On some uncommon occasions, it may begin late, gain strength, and then degenerate before the monsoon onset. An El Niño of any intensity can lower the number of monsoon rains and thus have a considerable local impact.

El Niño occasions repeat themselves in a two- to seven-year cycle, with a strong El Niño expected every 10-15 years. However, since 2000, five El Niño occasions have currently taken place. A new scientific study is pointing to the enhanced regularity of severe El Niños as a result of climate modification. A paper released in Nature Climate Change on July 2017 had recommended that such extreme occasions might happen two times as often as today if the average yearly global temperature levels got to 1.5 ° C over pre-industrial times.

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